Risk Analysis Tool

1RiskAnalysisSettings settings = new RiskAnalysisSettings();
2
3// Set number of iterations for Monte Carlo simulation (the default value is 100).
4settings.IterationsCount = 200;

 1Project project = new Project("New Project.mpp");
 2Task task = project.RootTask.Children.GetById(17);
 3
 4// Initialize a risk pattern
 5RiskPattern pattern = new RiskPattern(task);
 6
 7// Select a distribution type for the random number generator to generate possible values from (only two types currently supported, namely normal and uniform)
 8// For more details see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution)
 9pattern.Distribution = ProbabilityDistributionType.Normal;
10
11// Set the percentage of the most likely task duration which can happen in the best possible project scenario 
12// The default value is 75, which means that if the estimated specified task duration is 4 days then the optimistic duration will be 3 days
13pattern.Optimistic = 70;
14
15// Set the percentage of the most likely task duration which can happen in the worst possible project scenario 
16// The default value is 125, which means that if the estimated specified task duration is 4 days then the pessimistic duration will be 5 days.
17pattern.Pessimistic = 130;
18
19// Set a confidence level that correspond to the percentage of the time the actual values will be within optimistic and pessimistic estimates. 
20// You can think of it as a value of standard deviation: the more uncertain about your estimates you are, the more the value of standard deviation used in random number generator is
21pattern.ConfidenceLevel = ConfidenceLevel.CL75;
22
23settings.Patterns.Add(pattern);

1// Analyze the project risks
2RiskAnalyzer analyzer = new RiskAnalyzer(settings);
3RiskAnalysisResult analysisResult = analyzer.Analyze(project);

 1// Select the desired output (here we get early finish of the root task)
 2RiskItemStatistics rootEarlyFinish = analysisResult.GetRiskItems(RiskItemType.EarlyFinish).Get(project.RootTask);
 3Console.WriteLine("Expected value: {0}", rootEarlyFinish.ExpectedValue);
 4Console.WriteLine("StandardDeviation: {0}", rootEarlyFinish.StandardDeviation);
 5Console.WriteLine("10% Percentile: {0}", rootEarlyFinish.GetPercentile(10));
 6Console.WriteLine("50% Percentile: {0}", rootEarlyFinish.GetPercentile(50));
 7Console.WriteLine("90% Percentile: {0}", rootEarlyFinish.GetPercentile(90));
 8Console.WriteLine("Minimum: {0}", rootEarlyFinish.Minimum);
 9Console.WriteLine("Maximum: {0}", rootEarlyFinish.Maximum);
10analysisResult.SaveReport("AnalysisReport_out.pdf");